Spring, Hot Autumn - More Conflict On The Horizon
The dialogue between the West and Islam has reached surrealistic tones, which have become clear during the recent G8 meeting under the supervision of President Obama, who boosted Europe's concerns. The leaders at the meeting in Deuville
announced their support for the Arab Spring and theconsequent hope for democratic change.
According to our "Marshall Plan", Tunisia and Egypt will receive between 20 and 40 million dollars. It does not mean that nothing good will come out of all this, but we are not taking precautionary measures to protect ourselves and those peoples which are faced with indications of internal extremism as well as antagonism against us. This antagonism and extremism risk tearing the spring apart and, with it, summer, autumn and winter in a wave of war.
For decades, Middle-Eastern auocracies made people pay the price of their dictatorship and we permitted that, hoping for stability. Now it may be our turn, the West, Europe, Israel, to pay the price of the indoctrination carried out by our protégés on their own citizens.
The political scene suggests something we do not want to hear: war. In Lebanon, the assault on our soldiers is a clear indication that in Syria, Bashar Assad is going to kill all dissidents and that it is forbidden to intrude into his internal affairs.
It also represents a call for UNIFIL's evacuation, the UN peace-keeping force in Southern Lebanon. UNFIL has not served its purpose because of its limited mandate: the massive rearmament of Hizbullah, the Shiite militia backed by Syria and Iran, happened under the eyes of the UN mission, and now it is ready to strike even Tel Aviv with thousands of missiles. UNIFIL was necessary to prevent infiltration and missiles dripping over Israeli towns. To expel the UN contingent would mean to removing Italians and Spanish soldiers from the sights, exposing Israel directly to the enemy fire. Moreover, there is no local armed group that would attack without Hizbullah's permission, and it is clear from the movements in the area that Hizbullah is getting ready for war.
During the last two days, the Arab countries have made two moves: first, opposing the European resolution, advanced by the English, French and Germans, which condemns Assad's slaughters in Syria. The Organisation of the Islamic Conference (57 States) sent a letter to Gerard Araud, French Ambassador at UN, defining the European proposal as "interference with internal Syrian affairs". Chinese and Russians argued that it is, as vice-Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Ryabkov says, "beyond time limits and useless".
Meanwhile, the Arab League approved Abu Mazen's request to back the unilateral declaration of Independence of Palestine in September, an extremist position consequent to Fatah and Hamas unification. At Doha, Abu Mazen also said that he does not intend to negotiate directly with Israel and declared that a Palestinian State will be "purged of Jews", i.e. Judenrein.
The whole League and Qatar in particular, encouraged the freeze of the peace process. Qatar is also very close to Iran.
Meanwhile Egypt opened the Rafah Border Crossing in a generous concession to Hamas. Now people are free to move, import and export any kind of goods and not only candies. Mubarak used to fight against Hamas, which spread terror not only in Israel but also in Egypt, where it was supported by the Muslim Brotherhood, now the most organised political force. The Muslim Brotherhood has tightened special relations with Iran: agreements, diplomatic recognition, transit in Suez Canal. What seals this alliance is jihad, as in other alliances such as Hamas-Iran and Bin Laden-Iran.
The other major Sunni player, Saudi Arabia, is not standing still: it is trying to set up a large alliance, including Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Central Asian States, to compensate for the lack of US leadership. For this purpose, Saudi Arabia has advanced a proposal of enlargement of Gulf Council's members to include Morocco and Jordan.
All these moves aim at reacting to the renewed Arab Spring in September, which Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria may play a fundamental role. The recognition of a Palestinian State by the UN could excite those who want to get rid of Israel, bureaucratically first and then factually. If UN does not approve this measure, a jihad of rage would be on the way. In both cases, Iran, more than the Palestinians, is preparing for an animated September in cahoots with all Israel's enemies.