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In recent weeks, there were expectations in the West that Russia might move toward a compromise over US missile defense plans in Europe. Russian officials noted eased tensions between Russia and the US on the issue, arguing that Moscow was no longer considering a military response to the controversial missile defense shield plans.

However, President George W Bush and his outgoing Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, once again failed to reach a deal on missile defense during talks Russia's resort city of Sochi on 6 April. Instead, they pledged to jointly work on a global missile shield involving the US, Europe and Russia. Putin said the proposed global missile defense system should be built jointly by the US, Russia and Europe, and suggested the project be based on the principles of equality and joint control.

Ahead of the Sochi meeting, at the NATO summit in Bucharest, Putin classified NATO's eastward expansion as a "direct threat" to Russia. "Statements that the process is not aimed against Russia cannot satisfy us," Putin said. He also argued that Russia's national security could not be based on verbal promises, while NATO criteria on the use of military force remained unclear.

The Kremlin also pledged to boost its strategic capabilities. Russia will continue to develop its nuclear deterrent, including naval, air and land-based components, Putin announced on 4 April.

Inevitably, Putin's statements were echoed by the country's top military officials. Russia plans to create five-six naval aircraft carrier groups, Russian Naval Commander Admiral Vladimir Vysotsky said on 4 April. He also pledged to start operations on a new strategic nuclear submarine Yuri Dolgoruki and test the new naval missile complex Bulava by the end of 2008.

Russia would raise the number of strategic patrol flights over the world's oceans up to 20-30 per month, Russian Air Force Commander, General Alexander Zelin said on 4 April. He said the Air Force had recorded 40 strategic bomber flights since the beginning of this year.

Russia resumed strategic bomber patrol flights over international waters in August 2007. The move has been widely perceived in the West as a sign of Russia's increasingly assertive military stance, while Moscow described the long-range flights as legitimate security measures.

Furthermore, Russia's military experts appear to favor a doctrine of preemptive strikes. In March, General Leonid Ivashov, head of the Moscow-based Geopolicy Academy, suggested that Russia should be prepared to use nuclear weapons to protect its allies. He also warned that Russia may face effectively loosing its nuclear deterrent because of the growing capabilities of the US missile shield.

The Russian military doctrine approved by Putin in 2000 stipulates that Russia may use nuclear weapons to defend itself and its allies. In January, Russia's Chief of General Staff Yuri Baluyevsky pledged to use nuclear weapons and preemptive strikes to protect the Russian Federation and its allies.

However, Russia's military experts also conceded that the country's nuclear deterrent was ageing. The US may be able to destroy Russian strategic nuclear forces by non-nuclear strikes after 2012-2015, warned Konstantin Sivkov, deputy head of the Geopolicy Academy. He speculated that such strikes could disable 70-80 percent of Russia's nuclear potential, while remaining missiles could be intercepted by the US missile shield.

In a report entitled "The Crisis of the Russian army," published in February, Russia's Institute of National Strategy warned that by 2015 Russian Strategic Forces may be left with just 300 intercontinental missiles and 600 warheads. Both the US and China could soon become capable of dealing with Russia from a position of force, the report said.

In 2000-2007, Russia decommissioned 440 missiles and about 2,500 warheads, while only 27 new missiles were supplied to the armed forces, the report said. Given the current negative trends, the Russian Missile Forces may have only 100-200 intercontinental missiles by 2018, it said.

In response, Russian military officials insisted the country's nuclear deterrent was adequately funded. Since 2004, Russia has raised funding of strategic missile forces by four times, Russian Missile Forces Commander, General Nikolai Solovtsov announced on 17 March.

Russia's renewed talk of its nuclear deterrent comes against the background of the upcoming end of Putin's term as president. And it is still far from certain whether the country's new president, Dmitry Medvedev, will pursue his perceived role of a "liberal" or opt for continued reliance on bellicose pronouncements as a foreign policy instrument.