Israel Simulates Northern War With With Hezbollah As Missile Threat Grows

On a Sunday morning in January, Lt. Ilay Levy, squad commander in an elite Israeli paratrooper unit, drove to the Golan Heights as if he was called up for war with Lebanon's Hezbollah.

Levy was part of a four-day drill in Israel's wooded, hilly north, allowing troops to practice fighting in the terrain they would face in combat and to test their readiness for a potential escalation with the Iran-backed terrorist group.

"We simulated fighting as if we were at war with Lebanon," Levy told The Algemeiner in a recent interview. "It was quite difficult and hard because of the cold and harsh weather conditions and a lack of sleep, which challenged the strength of the soldiers and improved our readiness against the enemy."

The drill involved combining advanced means of observation with tanks, drones, and artillery, in scenarios focused on fighting terrorist organizations in the northern theater.

"The army is becoming more and more technological," Levy remarked. "There are many new technologies such as drones and computerized tools for navigation which help us a lot during the fighting, and which we didn't have before. So we put a lot of focus on training with technological means."

The drill also sought to specifically strengthen the "resilience" of the battalion by improving the mental and physical capabilities, as well as combat fitness, of the soldiers, the Israel Defense Forces said.

Levy said that one of the challenges paratroopers face is integrating with different forces to fight in unison.

"During the drill, there was a lot of emphasis on combined combat -- for example, with tanks and integrating the fighting of ground troops with the Israeli Air Force," he said. "This is where we need to improve."

The exercise comes as Hezbollah's efforts to acquire and develop precision-guided missiles (PGM) in Lebanon, with Tehran's help, has grown into a major security threat along Israel's northern border.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has in recent weeks repeatedly compared Iran to an octopus of "terror and instability," whose tentacles reach across the Middle East, including Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories.

Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iran branch in the research and analysis division of the IDF's military intelligence unit, said that while both sides want to avoid war, increased tensions in the region have raised chances of an escalation this year.

"If in the past, the probability of a clash between Israel and Lebanon was low, around 20 percent, now it's 50 or 60 percent," Citrinowicz told The Algemeiner. "Israel is becoming more active in the shadow war campaign because Hezbollah's force buildup is continuing, especially regarding the [PGM] project. When you are more active, there are more chances of mistakes."

He also noted uncertainty around the ongoing negotiations in Vienna to revive to the 2015 nuclear agreement. If they fail, Citrinowicz said, regional tensions will escalate further.

"The question is whether Israel will want to do something in Iran alone," he said. "I think that Israel understands that if they do something in Iran, then Hezbollah won't sit aside and do nothing."

Hezbollah, helped by Iran, has been investing heavily to equip its missile arsenal with PGMs -- projectiles that pose a major threat to civilians, property, and critical infrastructure, including ports and strategic military compounds.

The militant group has continually threatened to fire rockets at Israel from Lebanon. Meanwhile, Israel has reportedly carried out airstrikes in Syria to foil efforts by Iran to smuggle the advanced weapons or parts of PGMs into Lebanon.

Citrinowicz suggested that one potential scenario for the outbreak of an escalation could be unintentional -- for example, if Israel accidentally kills a Hezbollah operative in Syria, prompting a response. Intentional scenarios would include an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, or a pre-emptive strike in Lebanon.

The January IDF drill is set against these dynamics, with an eye on Hezbollah's immense missile arsenal.

"We know that the enemy is not a weak enemy. It is a skilled, trained enemy with a lot of experience from previous fighting in Syria and other places and has technologies which pose a big threat on us," Levy told The Algemeiner.

Hezbollah has an estimated arsenal of about 150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at the Israeli home front, along with thousands of operatives. Should war break out, the IDF believes Hezbollah could fire more than 2,000 rockets and missiles a day for at least the first days of fighting. 

They consist of thousands of short-range missiles or rockets, between hundreds and thousands of medium-range missiles, and dozens of long-range missiles, according to Israel's Alma research and education center.

"Hezbollah has really improved its offense, but also its defense," Citrinowicz said, warning that an IDF ground presence would likely be required to stop the missile barrage. Hezbollah's rocket launchers, weapons and missiles are understood to be dispersed throughout Lebanon, with many hidden and stored in civilian homes in more than 200 Shiite villages and towns.

Levy said that during the drill, his unit simulated the takeover of a village or a compound of the enemy by foot, together with tanks.

"We have better technological means, but our biggest advantage is the spirit of our soldiers. This is what made the difference in most past wars in Israel's history," Levy said. "We will be stronger. We have a strong will to win as we know that there is no other choice."

"The real test is when we will be at war."

Originally published at Algemeiner.com - reposted with permission.