Just A Taste Of What Will Happen To Our Economy If We Go To War With China

Chinese forces are gathering directly across from the Kinmen Islands.  Those islands are currently controlled by Taiwan, and China may be preparing a move to grab them.  If China actually does such a thing, all hell could break loose.  Taiwan could potentially start launching missiles at any Chinese units that try to invade the Kinmen Islands, and if that happens the Chinese would inevitably return fire.  

In addition, there is no way that the Biden administration would allow such a move by China to go unanswered.  Earlier this year the entire world was shocked when Russian forces moved into Ukraine, and we could be right on the verge of another historic moment that changes everything.

Of course we would not be talking about this right now if Nancy Pelosi had not gone to Taiwan.

Over the past couple of days, there is one question that I keep pondering.

Why did Nancy Pelosi really go to Taiwan?

Top politicians such as Pelosi usually have very selfish motives for many of the decisions that they make.

Does Pelosi think that this trip will make her look "presidential"?  Could she actually be planning a run for the presidency if Joe Biden can't do it in 2024?

She is very close to the end of her career, and so maybe she figures that she should give it a shot before she is gone for good.

In any event, Pelosi's stunt has absolutely infuriated the Chinese, and they are promising that there will be severe consequences for "those who play with fire"...

The Communists raged Pelosi's visit was a "serious violation" of their sovereignty and vowed to take "all necessary measures".

"These moves, like playing with fire, are extremely dangerous. Those who play with fire will perish by it," said the China's foreign ministry.

A lot of people expected the Chinese to respond militarily as soon as Pelosi arrived in Taiwan.

When that didn't happen, China was relentlessly mocked on social media in the western world.

But that is not how these things work.

Major military operations are quite complicated, and it takes time to properly coordinate them.

So it may be days or even weeks before we learn exactly what the Chinese have planned.

Meanwhile, the Chinese have announced that there will be a series of live-fire drills in the waters off Taiwan from Thursday through Sunday...

Beijing announced six exclusion zones encircling Taiwan to facilitate live-fire military drills from Thursday to Sunday, with some of the areas crossing into the island's territorial waters. The size and scope of the areas could set the stage for the Chinese military's most provocative actions near Taiwan in decades.

Separately, the People's Liberation Army said exercises could start as soon as Tuesday, leaving open the possibility of military activities around Taiwan while Pelosi was visiting. The operations include "long-range live firing in the Taiwan Strait" and "regular-guided fire testing in the eastern waters" off Taiwan from Tuesday evening, the PLA said.

And it was being reported that the office of Taiwan's president was hit by a massive cyberattack just before Pelosi arrived...

The website of Taiwan's presidential office went dark Tuesday due to an alleged distributed denial-of-service attack, with other government websites also impacted.

Tense moment: The attack took place hours ahead of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. The Chinese government threatened to take action to respond to the trip, and Taiwan is reportedly readying air raid shelters in anticipation of a potential Chinese attack.

It would be wonderful if the Chinese stopped there.

Unfortunately, that is not likely to happen.

In fact, it is being reported that Chinese tanks are massing "on the coast of Fujian along the Taiwan Strait"...

A furious Beijing today warned US politicians they will 'come to no good end' if they 'play with fire' over Taiwan as video emerged purportedly showing tanks lined up on beaches opposite the island.

Chilling footage shared on Chinese social network Weibo appears to show amphibious tanks on the coast of Fujian along the Taiwan Strait. Further footage shows military equipment on the move in the city of Xiamen.

And another news source has pointed out that this area is very close to the Kinmen Islands...

And chilling footage shared on Chinese social network Weibo appears to show a column of amphibious tanks reportedly massing on beaches in Fujian along the Taiwan Strait.

Other footage shows a large amount of military equipment on the move in the province, including tanks on trains and columns of vehicles gridlocking Xiamen.

The closest point between China and Taiwan is the Kinmen Islands - which are around six miles east of Xiamen.

At this point we do not know if the Kinmen Islands will be a definite target.

But we do know that commercial flights have been "abruptly canceled from airports in several cities in Fujian province"...

In the last 24 hours, commercial flights have been abruptly canceled from airports in several cities in Fujian province. These airports include Xiamen, Fuzhou and Quanzhou. Xiamen Airlines put out a statement saying that the flight cancelations were due to "regional traffic control" and did not elaborate further.

We will have to wait and see how this plays out.

But without a doubt, I fully expect the Chinese to make some sort of a major statement in the days ahead.

And the Chinese military certainly seems to be shifting into full-blown war propaganda mode...

Chinese propaganda released yesterday showed off their military as soldiers in the clips vowed to fight to the death.

"We are fully prepared for any eventuality. Fight upon order, bury every intruder, and move toward joint and successful operations," the troops said, reports Chinese state media tabloid The Global Times.

"We are PLA soldiers, we swear to defend the motherland to the death."

Here in the United States, we are being told to disregard such "propaganda" and the "empty threats" that the Chinese are supposedly making.

But are they really "empty threats"?

What if they aren't?  What if the Chinese really mean what they say?

I think that something that Caitlin Johnstone tweeted sums things up quite well...

Russia: Don't cross our red lines in Ukraine or we'll take action.

US politicians: They're bluffing. Cross those red lines.

*Russia invades.*

China: Don't cross our red lines in Taiwan or we'll take action.

US politicians: They're bluffing. Cross those red lines.

Ultimately, the Chinese were probably planning to invade Taiwan fairly soon anyway, but Pelosi's visit certainly has the potential to greatly accelerate matters.

And even though Taiwanese officials are welcoming Pelosi's visit, they are also preparing for war at the same time...

Taiwanese defense officials have canceled the leave of some soldiers and officers "to immediately prepare" for the chance of war in response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Asia this week, according to local reports.

Sadly, war with China is coming.

It is just a matter of time.

So what would such a conflict do to the U.S. economy?

Well, for one thing it would absolutely devastate the pharmaceutical industry...

Consider that Chinese firms are said to supply more than 90 percent of US antibiotics, 70 percent of acetaminophen (that's Tylenol), and almost half of the anti-coagulant heparin. "Are said to" because we struggle even to gather information on this because of the opacity of the Chinese market and state-dominated record keeping. 

Some studies suggest up to 80 percent of the basic ingredients in US drugs come from the PRC. China is also the second largest exporter of biologics and the prime source of medical devices per the FDA. In some cases, it appears that India is a prime source of a key import - generics, for example - but that masks the fact that India sources up to 75 percent of its own pharma ingredients from China.

The food industry would also be turned upside down.  In fact, it is being reported that "it is almost impossible to have a diet with foods that were not produced in China"...

According to CNN.com, experts believe that it is almost impossible to have a diet with foods that were not produced in China. Products such as chips and garlic are produced in China. Spices and herbs such as ginger and garlic are grown in China and exported to foreign markets. Chinese factories make vegetarian meat products. Many canned foods on market shelves were manufactured in China.

Our ability to produce our own food would also be greatly affected, because China produces so much of our farm machinery...

Farm machinery such as tractors, egg incubators and harvesters are manufactured in China. Chain saws, wood chippers and shredders are also produced in the country. Elevators and bulldozers are also assembled in China.

Are you starting to get the picture?

We should have never become so dependent on Chinese production, because it really is a major national security threat.

Of course the Chinese also produce a lot of our clothes...

Chinese factories manufacture winter coats, gloves, mittens and hats for consumers around the world. These factories also produce maternity clothes and infant clothes as well as wedding dresses and tuxedos. Underwear, T-shirts and slips are among the items exported from China to consumers around the world. Sports caps are also produced in China as are belts and bras.

And it turns out that 70 percent of our shoes come from China too...

The United States sources 99 percent of shoes sold from overseas, with 70 percent of those coming from the PRC. Same with 72 percent of smartphones. The artificial sweeteners in Diet Coke. Toys, furniture, sports equipment ... what you buy every time you go to Target.

The moment we go to war with them, the flow of cheap goods from China completely stops.

In addition, once the Chinese invade Taiwan there will be an absolutely excruciating computer chip shortage.

It was recently being projected that chipmakers in Taiwan would have a 66 percent share of the total global market by the end of 2023...

Taiwan's contract chipmakers will expand their global market share to 66% by revenue this year, cementing the island's dominant position in the chip supply chain, a new industry forecast shows.

As I have discussed previously, just about every industry in the United States relies on equipment that contains computer chips.

If the flow of chips from Taiwan is eliminated, the entire global economy would come to a crashing halt.

I am not just talking about a recession or a depression.

I am talking about an economic collapse on a scale that most people would not be able to comprehend right now.

This is a war we are not currently prepared to win and it's timeline just accelerated.

Originally published at The Economic Collapse Blog - reposted with permission.