Turkey’s Expansionism In Syria Creates New Challenges For Israel

Turkey is deepening its military and political foothold in northern and central Syria, raising significant concerns over the long-term consequences of Ankara's ambitions for regional influence and control. 

From the construction of a military base to growing engagement with the Syrian Islamist-leaning regime and a steady flow of Turkish armored vehicles into the area, Israel must now be on the lookout for threats that emanate from Sunni Turkey in a country dominated by Shi'ite Iran for many years under the previous Assad regime.

Israel's recent series of steps in southern Syria, including ground and air operations, the setting up of multiple military posts on the Syrian side of the demilitarized zone, and the setting up of an alliance with the southern Syrian Druze population, appear designed to prevent Turkish-backed Sunni fundamentalists--or Turkish forces themselves--from moving south beyond Damascus. 

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a prominent expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, told JNS on Wednesday that there are multiple warning signs. 

"After the fall of Assad, we know that Turkey replaced Russia as the dominant player in Syria," said Yanarocak. "When we speak about today's Syrian regime, it is thanks to Turkey, due to Turkish changes and Turkish strategy."

Citing a recent uptick in Turkish involvement, Yanarocak emphasized that "the Turkish intelligence organization, then the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and finally the president of Turkey met with al-Joulani [the new 'interim' Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who headed Ha'at Tahrir al-Sham rebel coalition that overthrew the Assad regime]. And we actually saw the Turkish infiltration--both on the ministerial and military levels." 

Amid unconfirmed reports that Turkey was planning to build a new military base in Palmyra in central Syria, the IDF announced on March 25 that it had struck Syrian military bases in the area, including the T4 Airbase. The message to Turkey appears to have been, "Please don't come," said Yanarocak.

Yanarocak noted that last week, media reports stated that Turkey had begun supplying various armored vehicles to Turkish-backed elements in northern Syria. "We will see the Turkish influence, more and more," he assessed. 

 "Let us not forget that Turkey has a land corridor to Syria and has not yet withdrawn from Syria--it is inside Syria. So we are only going to see more and more penetration, not the opposite."

On March 10, the Syrian presidency announced an agreement with the head of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, based in northern Syria, to integrate the institutions of the autonomous Kurdish administration in the northeast into the national government, France 24 reported.

Yanarocak interpreted this as a signal of American withdrawal. "This will make Turkey the only solution, with Russia--if Russia remains. But if the current trend continues and the Russians leave, then Turkey will be left alone in Syria," he said.

Turkey appears to be positioning itself through an ideological lens that frames its intervention as a form of Sunni Muslim brotherhood that transcends ethnicity, Yanarocak stated. "The Turks convey the message that we have here a shared Sunni Muslim brotherhood bond," he stated.

As a result, Yanarocak warned, Turkish air force and ground force presence will likely begin to appear all over Syria. He stressed that such an expansion would not include meaningful Syrian input, adding, "No one really asked the Syrian people in the past what they think, and they won't be asked now either."

Yanarocak added, "Turkey has already penetrated Syria. The head of Turkish intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, was the first foreign official to visit Syria and he prayed at the Umayyad Mosque. This signals a shared Sunni ideological camp. This isn't about Turkish dominance over Arabs. It's about a shared ideological brotherhood."

He continued, "I don't think anyone else is willing to arm the Syrian army besides Turkey," adding that Turkey's military-industrial complex makes it the only realistic candidate to shape a new Syrian army. "It has many products that could fit a new Syrian army--from APCs to rifles, even combat ships."

Former U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Eric Edelman, a Distinguished Scholar at the Washington D.C.-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), told JNS on Tuesday that the new Syrian leader will have to consider a range of factors that go beyond Turkey's interests.

 "Turkey is extremely influential, but its views are not dispositive with Sharaa, at least at this point. Sharaa has many different concerns to balance and Turkey will be an important but not the sole factor for his decision calculus," Edelman assessed. 

The former ambassador added, "There will be some inherent resistance among Arabs to an overbearing effort at establishing a neo-Ottoman overlordship--something Turkish officials frequently underestimate. That said, the key will be the degree to which Turkey can establish military, and especially air bases, in Syria. That, of course, would be a significant move in the direction of Turkish overweening influence."

Despite growing Turkish infiltration, Yanarocak argued that Israel must make efforts to deconflict with Turkey as much as possible. "Israel, to prevent any undesirable friction or incident with Turkey, must act very responsibly. The two states need to sit face to face, especially the military professionals, and clarify red lines with seriousness and mutual respect. Not to provoke or poke each other in the eye."

He said the overarching goal should be "to prevent the escalation from spiraling into declared hostility. That is the main objective." According to Yanarocak, "The Turkish side must also internalize that they cannot be on the Israeli-Syrian border. That is an Israeli red line. Israel will not accept this."

In northern Syria, meanwhile, Turkey has spent years backing the SNA (Syrian National Army) and other rebel groups, which it activated to fight the Kurds of northern Syria. Israel will no doubt be watching closely to see if these entities attempt to move south. 

Originally published at JNS.org