The Warning Lights Are Flashing: Is A Massive Strike On Iran Only Days Away?

It is impossible for anyone outside the highest levels of the White House and Pentagon to know whether a massive attack on Iran will begin within the next 72 hours.

But something is clearly happening.

The evidence is no longer based merely on anonymous social-media accounts tracking aircraft or interpreting unusual military movements. President Donald Trump has publicly confirmed that he is close to deciding whether to launch an attack on Iran that could be "bigger than ever before." American and Israeli officials have reportedly said expanded combat operations could begin within days.

Trump has also declared that the United States will attack Iran's deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain facility "very soon." The underground complex near Natanz is believed by Israeli intelligence to contain thousands of centrifuges moved into tunnels hundreds of feet beneath the mountain.

These are not vague warnings about unspecified future consequences. They are descriptions of targets, weapons and operations that appear to be under active consideration.

For almost two weeks, American forces have conducted nightly attacks against Iranian air defenses, coastal radar installations, anti-ship missile positions, drone-launching facilities, military command centers and maritime infrastructure.

Reuters reported that these attacks were not simply retaliation for individual Iranian actions. They were also destroying capabilities the United States would want eliminated before undertaking more complicated operations deeper inside Iran.

That is what military planners call shaping the battlefield.

The arrival of the B-1B Lancer in the renewed campaign provides another important signal. A B-1 reportedly flew from a British base to strike Revolutionary Guard targets, marking its first use since the latest fighting began. The aircraft can carry up to 75,000 pounds of conventional weapons, including two dozen 2,000-pound bombs or up to 24 long-range JASSM cruise missiles.

A B-1 is not necessarily the weapon that would be used against Iran's deepest underground chambers. Its importance is volume. It can deliver an enormous number of precision weapons against command centers, missile sites, aircraft shelters, military industries and infrastructure during a single mission.

A strike against Pickaxe Mountain would probably require a different package. During the earlier attack on Iran's Fordow facility, the United States used B-2 stealth bombers carrying 30,000-pound Massive Ordnance Penetrators. Fighter aircraft suppressed Iranian air defenses while a submarine launched Tomahawk missiles against other targets. Decoy aircraft were sent in another direction to conceal the operation.

A new attack could follow a similar pattern, but on a much wider scale: stealth bombers attacking underground facilities, B-1s delivering large numbers of conventional weapons, fighters suppressing remaining air defenses, ships and submarines launching cruise missiles, and cyber and electronic-warfare operations attempting to blind Iranian communications.

Dozens of additional American refueling aircraft have also reportedly been positioned in Israel as the administration considers bombing Iran's nuclear and strategic infrastructure. Refueling aircraft are essential when large numbers of combat aircraft must remain over distant targets for extended operations.

The United States may therefore be preparing for something considerably larger than another night of limited retaliatory strikes.

The most likely opening targets would be those capable of threatening American aircraft, bases and ships: air-defense batteries, ballistic-missile launchers, drone facilities, coastal missile sites, Revolutionary Guard command centers and military communications.

A second wave could strike Iran's strategic infrastructure.

Trump has explicitly threatened to destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every additional commercial vessel attacked in the Strait of Hormuz. His administration has also discussed strikes against nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure and the fortified Pickaxe Mountain complex.

More dangerous options have reportedly included deploying American troops to seize Kharg Island, through which much of Iran's oil historically flows. That would be far more escalatory than an air campaign because it could require amphibious forces, special-operations troops and the continuing defense of captured Iranian territory.

A ground invasion of Iran still appears highly unlikely. A concentrated campaign intended to destroy strategic assets, punish the leadership and force Tehran to reopen shipping routes is much more plausible.

The central danger is that Iran has already explained what it would do next.

Tehran has warned Gulf governments that American attacks on Iran's electrical grid would produce "unlimited retaliation" against countries hosting American military forces.

Those threats cannot be dismissed as empty rhetoric. Earlier in the conflict, Iranian missiles and drones damaged Qatar's enormous Ras Laffan energy complex, targeted Saudi facilities, set fires at Kuwaiti refineries and forced the United Arab Emirates to shut gas installations.

Iran could attempt to strike American bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. It could simultaneously target electrical plants, oil terminals, refineries, pipelines and water-desalination facilities belonging to those countries.

Desalination plants are particularly consequential because several Gulf nations depend heavily on them for drinking water. Even limited disruption could create panic, force emergency rationing and place enormous pressure on governments that want no part in the war.

Israel would almost certainly prepare for renewed ballistic-missile attacks. Municipalities including Ramat Gan, Eilat and Karmiel have opened public shelters after local assessments concluded that the danger of Iranian missile fire over the weekend was no longer negligible. Israeli officials reportedly believe that an American attack against strategic Iranian infrastructure or senior regime figures could cause Tehran to bring Israel directly back into the conflict.

The shelter openings are therefore meaningful. But they are precautionary indicators--not proof that Israel has received the exact time of an impending American attack.

Iran may also retaliate indirectly by attempting to choke the world's energy arteries.

The Strait of Hormuz is already heavily disrupted. Now the Houthis are attempting to threaten Saudi shipping through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb.

Reuters reports that Iran recently transported Revolutionary Guard commanders, military advisers and missile- and drone-related equipment into Houthi-controlled Yemen. Days later, the Houthis announced a blockade of Saudi shipping and attacked Saudi oil tankers.

That creates a potential two-chokepoint crisis: Iran threatening traffic through Hormuz while its Houthi allies threaten traffic between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

Oil has already climbed above $100 per barrel. The two waterways together handle roughly one-quarter of global petroleum supplies, and insurers are sharply increasing the cost of sending ships through threatened areas.

A sustained shutdown could produce fuel shortages, inflation, disrupted supply chains and a major global recession. Predictions of an automatic worldwide depression, failed banks and the immediate collapse of civilization go well beyond what the evidence presently supports. But the economic danger is unquestionably severe.

The possibility of Iranian-directed attacks inside the United States and Europe must be discussed carefully.

Iran has spent years developing what counterterrorism officials have described as a "homeland option." Researchers at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point identified at least 17 Iranian-linked plots disrupted in the United States during a five-year period. The potential pathways include Iranian intelligence operatives, Hezbollah members, criminal organizations hired as proxies and individuals inspired to act independently.

The FBI says Iran's global threat includes attempted terrorist attacks, kidnappings, assassination schemes, espionage, cyberattacks and operations against dissidents and current or former American officials.

Britain has faced a similar threat. British intelligence has reportedly tracked more than 20 Iranian-linked plots, often involving criminal networks hired to conduct surveillance or attacks against dissidents and Jewish or Israeli interests.

If Tehran wanted retaliation without leaving obvious Iranian fingerprints, using criminal intermediaries, proxy organizations or inspired lone actors would offer plausible deniability. The immediate danger would not necessarily resemble a centrally commanded military operation. It could instead appear as attempted assassinations, sabotage, attacks against diplomatic or religious institutions, or opportunistic violence encouraged by Iranian propaganda.

Cyberattacks may be even more likely. American authorities have repeatedly warned that Iranian actors target government networks, businesses and critical infrastructure. A recently listed federal advisory concerns Iranian-affiliated actors exploiting programmable industrial-control equipment used in American infrastructure.

No credible source can guarantee that a massive attack will occur this weekend.

Diplomatic communications are reportedly continuing through Qatar, Oman and other intermediaries. Some of the military buildup and public threats may be intended to frighten Tehran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting American nuclear demands without another enormous battle.

But the warning lights are flashing.

The president says he is close to a decision. B-1 bombers have entered the renewed campaign. Additional refueling aircraft have been positioned. Iranian air defenses and coastal systems are being systematically reduced. Pickaxe Mountain has been publicly identified as a coming target. Iran is reinforcing the Houthis, threatening Gulf infrastructure and warning Britain that an airbase used by American bombers is now a legitimate target.

Taken individually, any one of these developments might be dismissed as signaling or psychological warfare.

Taken together, they describe a region preparing for the possibility that the current war is about to enter its most dangerous phase yet.