China Solidifies Military Positions For New Push Against Taiwan

The relationship between the small island nation of Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China has been unstable and tense for many decades. The tension between the two countries stems from the result of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. 

However, there are fresh concerns that those tensions may be escalating to the point of conflict and the US has good reason to be concerned. 

Much of that has to do with Chinese President and General Secretary of the Communist Party Xi Jinping, who has taken a much more aggressive stance on Taiwan than his immediate predecessors. 

Beijing, which claims Taiwan under a policy known as "One China" opposes other countries pursuing ties with the self-ruled island and has made no secret it eventually plans to bring Taiwan back into the fold.

The Chinese air force has performed a number of patrols around Taiwan in the past several days. The encirclements, however, seem to be a part of a “comprehensive battle plan for Taiwan” as they were carried out just one day after a 15-hour live-fire drill in the Taiwan Strait.

According to Song Zhonping, former member of the Second Artillery Corps of the People’s Liberation Army, the large number of Chinese comprehensive operational drills suggest that the PLA is preparing for the possibility of an expanded conflict.

The Chinese have fortified their positions on the Spratly Islands, despite Xi Jinping’s reiterated promises that the area would remain demilitarized. A variety of military facilities have sprouted all over Cuarteron Reef, Fiery Cross Reef, Gaven Reef, Hughes Reef, Johnson Reef, Mischief Reef and Subi Reef. 

As stated by the United States Pacific Command nominee, Admiral Phillip Davidson, China is now able to control this strategic waterway in the South China Sea.

Recent activities of PLA show a significant level of modernization in tactics and weaponry. Even though Chinese submarines still falter in performance when compared to their U.S. counterparts, considerable improvements have been made. Their long-range bombers are being modernized with high-end stealth technology, while new unmanned aircraft are under continual development.

What’s more, the Chinese are weaponizing not only land, water and air but also space. Chinese lasers are able to neutralize any satellite, which is a great threat to the US military projection systems. The PLA’s cyber warfare abilities are considered a serious threat to our power grid and other infrastructure systems.

Simultaneously, the Chinese are extensively working on testing hypersonic strike weapons. Seven tests have been conducted so far, all involving a hypersonic glide vehicle. It was fired atop a ballistic missile which can travel at the speed of at least 7,000 miles per hour. Current US missile defenses will likely not be able to intercept and ward off this type of a missile. 

Taiwan and Japan are closely monitoring PLA’s activities over the Miyako Strait and in the general area. At a routine military briefing, Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council member Chiu Chui-cheng stated that Taiwan has no intention of ever bowing down to military threats and incentives.

Amid growing tensions between the two countries, Taiwanese officials announced a military operation of their own. Starting sometime next week, Taiwanese armed forces will reportedly simulate the process of repelling a foreign invasion although it doesn't explicitly mention China as that invading force. 

Taiwan has been training to defend the island for decades and for a country of only 23 million people, its military is quite capable. It has an active force of around 180,000 troops, with 1.5 million reservists — putting its size on par with the militaries of Germany and Japan, despite having a much smaller population.

Some of its equipment is relatively high-end. Its air force operates around 100 US-made F-16s, and 100 indigenously made F-CK-1A/Cs. Its Army maintains a number of AH-64 Apache gunships, and AH-1W SuperCobras.  Even more importantly is has hundreds of cruise missiles that can strike mainland China in a counter-attack.

Taiwan's geography also provides another advantage. Crossing the Taiwan Strait would take up to 7-8 hours by sea, and during that time Taiwan could prepare for an invasion, and use its navy and air force to attack incoming Chinese ships, and set up anti-ship mines along the Strait.

Military experts agree that Taiwan would eventually fall to China but it could come at a very high cost.  The only thing that could prevent a complete take-over would be US intervention.  

However if the US repelled such an attack, a failed invasion would be devastating to the Chinese Communist Party who has staked it's reputation on a strong position towards Taiwan.

President Xi's comments at the 19th Party Congress last October; "We will resolutely uphold national sovereignty and territorial integrity and will never tolerate a repeat of the historical tragedy of a divided country," he stated to wild applause.

"We have firm will, full confidence, and sufficient capability to defeat any form of Taiwan independence secession plot. We will never allow any person, any organization, or any political party to split any part of the Chinese territory from China at any time or in any form."

Any conflict between the US and China over Taiwan would not be short lived and could cost thousands if not millions of lives.  At the same time some fear allowing China to take Taiwan would only embolden and strengthen China for any future potential military conflict.