America's Shifting Religious Trends

The United States is often referred to in religious circles as 'Christian America'. Many statistics would seem to back this up including the most recent ABCNEWS/Beliefnet poll, which showed that 83 percent of Americans identify themselves as Christians. 

Those indicating no religion were 13 percent, which leaves just 4 percent as adherents of all non-Christian religions combined -- Jews, Muslims, Buddhists and others.

An analysis of the poll results co-authored by Gary Langer contrasts these findings with the world at large: 52 percent of the world's population is non-Christian, compared to 4 percent in the United States; and one-third is Christian, compared to 83 percent in the United States. 

It is interesting to note that only 37 percent of all professing Christians describe themselves as born-again or evangelical; that includes nearly half of all Protestants (47 percent), as well as a small share (14 percent) of Catholics.

What about the growth or decline of Christianity in America? Tyler ONeill, in a review for pjmedia.com, states that there are indications a revival of Christianity is underway.

O'Neill bases his conclusion on the results of a recent study by the Pew Research Center. Findings include the following:

" More than a quarter of Americans (27 percent) say they currently attend services at least once or twice a month but did not do so earlier in their adult lives. More Christians are among this group than non-Christians. 

" About half of these people say the main reason they attend church more frequently is due to changes in their religious beliefs -- they are growing closer to God.

" A full 44 percent of evangelical Protestants in the survey said they attend more frequently than in the past, as do 33 percent of members of historically black churches, 31 percent of mainline Protestants, and 28 percent of Catholics. 

Despite these seemingly positive trends, there are others that indicate the picture is not as rosy as it would seem on the surface. Paul Bedard, for the Washington Examiner, recently noted other Pew Research findings suggesting that Americans are increasingly giving up on God and supernatural manifestations such as divine healing and miracles.  

Half of Americans who have left their church no longer believe in God, leading a surge of nearly one-quarter or 25 percent of the nation who have no affiliation with any religion, according to the Pew survey. This finding, however, is in stark contrast to the one conducted by ABC where only 13 percent fall into the "no religion" bracket.

Bedard's observation is that this latest Pew survey demonstrates a growing trend in America: more and more people are 'junking' religion and many are giving up on God. Reasons given vary, but those falling into this category are drawn from four main groups:

" Those who don't believe (about 50%) - primarily for what they consider to be intellectual reasons such as "learning about evolution when I went to college";

" Those who dislike organized religion (about 20%) - stating for instance that "I see organized religious groups as more divisive than uniting";

" Those religiously unsure/undecided (about 18%) - providing comments such as "I don't have a particular religion because I am open-minded and I don't think there is one particular religion that is right or wrong";

" Inactive believers (about 10%) - who state among other similar factors that "I don't have the time to go to church".

At the Pew Research Center, Michael Lipka also listed other categories: people who think religion is too much like a business and others who mention clergy sexual abuse scandals as reasons for their stance.

But as Lipka expounds, Religious "nones" are by no means monolithic. They can be broken down into three broad subgroups: self-identified atheists, those who call themselves agnostic and people who describe their religion as "nothing in particular." 

The effect of this large "nones" group doesn't bode well for the concept of a 'Christian America' but also has adverse implications for political parties and other stakeholders who ignore the trend.

In a recent article by Thomas D. Williams for Breitbart.com, Williams quotes Salon Magazine which has reportedly accused the Republican Party of being out of touch with "post-Christian America," warning the GOP that if it doesnt renege on its alliance with Christianity, it will soon become irrelevant.

Ted Cruz's failure to get the GOP nomination, Matthew Sheffield proclaims in Salon, "is a perfect window into trends that will set the pace of American politics for decades to come: Americans are moving away from Christianity, including people most likely to vote Republican."

The trend away from religion, and Christianity in particular, Sheffield argues, is the real cause of Republicans woes and their failure to win the last two elections. If the GOP would just 'sell its soul' and dump its religious constituency, Sheffield suggests, things would go a whole lot better. This includes a full embrace of same-sex marriage and other positions at odds with Biblical morality, in the name of political expediency.

Williams, in his Breitbart review, observed that whereas statistics showing a rise in the religiously unaffiliated are undoubtedly sobering to people of faith, Sheffield fails to mention that the very same Pew study showed that over 70 percent of Americans continue to identify as Christian. This means that to an overwhelming majority of Americans, God matters.

Not all pundits would agree. John Sides  in his recent article for the Washington Post carried an interview with Robert P. Jones who is the founding CEO of the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI). 

Jones' new book, "The End of White Christian America," has been called "quite possibly the most illuminating text for this election year." Jones demonstrated the decline of white Christians in America among each successive generation:

"....over the last decade, we have seen marked decline among white evangelical Protestants, the more conservative part of the white Protestant family. White evangelical Protestants comprised 22 percent of the population in 1988 and still commanded 21 percent of the population in 2008, but their share of the religious market had slipped to 18 percent at the time the book went to press, and our latest 2015 numbers show an additional one-percentage-point slip to 17 percent.

These indicators of white evangelical decline at the national level are corroborated, for example, by internal membership reports during the same period from the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest evangelical Protestant denomination in the country. It has now posted nine straight years of declining growth rates..."

When asked the reasons for the decline, Jones stated that one issue stands out, particularly for younger Americans. About 70 percent of Millennials (ages 18-33) believe that religious groups are alienating young adults by being too judgmental about gay and lesbian issues. And 31 percent of Millennials who were raised religious but now claim no such affiliation report that negative teaching about or treatment of gay and lesbian people by religious organizations was a somewhat or very important factor in their leaving.

According to Jones, the rising number of religiously unaffiliated Americans has more to do with people being less likely to claim a formal connection with organized religion than it does with widespread doubts about the existence of God. Although there has been an uptick in the number of Americans who identify as atheist or agnostic, this has not been the main driver of growth of the religiously unaffiliated.

Jones also concluded that every four years, there is a shrinking pool of white Christian voters; if current trends continue, 2024 will be the first year white Christians will not make up a majority of voters nationwide.

Leonardo Blair recently noted in the Christian Post that Jones does have his detractors. Blair noted that, in a reaction to the book in an op-ed for RNS last month, Tobin Grant, professor of political science at Southern Illinois University Carbondale strongly disagreed. 

Grant argued in part that evangelicals don't see the decline in mainline protestant churches as related to the strength of the evangelical movement.

"Evangelicals do, however, believe that America once held their values, but no longer. Their perceived decline in importance is based on a false memory. Christian revisionist history sees the Founding Fathers as a group of Bible study leaders who founded the nation on God's directives. The changes in America today are seen as only the latest in a history of America turning away from God," he further explained.

Skewering Jones' analysis on same-sex marriage and the church, Grant also noted: "The polling on same-sex marriage does not show that America moved away from white Protestants. Instead, it showed how divided white Protestants are. 

Same-sex marriage was never a debate between white Protestants and the rest of America. Instead, evangelicals remained opposed to same-sex marriage while mainline Protestants grew to be supportive. Public opinion did not change despite Protestant objections; opinion changed because mainline Protestants shifted their positions."