Fact Or Fiction: Is There Going To Be A Motor Oil Shortage In The United States?
By Michael Snyder/Economic Collapse Blog May 19, 2026
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There have been persistent rumors that industry insiders are bracing for a widespread shortage of motor oil. Are these rumors accurate? I decided that I was going to investigate this and discover the truth.
Unfortunately, I have very bad news. Multiple sources within the industry are confirming that we are facing much higher prices and physical shortages of certain products if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon.
I realize that what I have just shared is not welcome news, but it isn't going to do any good to stick our heads in the sand.
According to Axios, supply chains for lighter-viscosity synthetic oils are particularly vulnerable, and one industry insider is warning that "actual shortages are starting to appear"...
Industry groups and analysts say lighter-viscosity synthetic oils -- including 0W-8, 0W-16 and certain 0W-20 grades commonly used in newer vehicles -- are most vulnerable to disruption.
"Actual shortages are starting to appear" for some synthetic oil products, Amanda Hay, global lead for base oils at ICIS, told Axios, adding that "security of supply is the chief concern for industry players."
What we are experiencing now is the leading edge of this crisis.
An internal memo that was apparently meant for AutoZone stores in the Southeast region got leaked to the public, and it is causing a great deal of concern...
Over the past week, reports about looming motor oil shortages have started popping up from multiple directions. The most pointed of them surfaced today, when a person posted what looks like an internal memo to the Southeast region of AutoZone stores.
In the memo, the writer says, "Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category [lubricating fluids] to drop by 40%." That figure continues to pop up, and it basically means one thing. Oil changes, transmission fluid changes, really anything that lubricates your car is about to get more expensive. We reached out to AutoZone for comment, but haven't received a reply at the time of writing.
So far, AutoZone has not confirmed or denied that the memo is real or not.
But what local repair shop owners are hearing appears to confirm that big trouble is brewing...
Shops on the ground are already bracing for it. Speaking to a local repair store here in Little Rock, Arkansas, a general manager tells Carscoops that "They are being very secretive about all that. They say the price is for sure gonna go up, but they don't know how the mainline volume will be affected yet."
Another shop owner in DC said on Monday that Mobil and Shell informed Costco and Walmart that they're out of product to ship. Later that same day, he posted what appears to be a bulletin focused on managing supply chain issues. Guidance included partially substituting 0W-8 oil with 0W-16 and then doing the same for 0W-16 with 0W-20. These are just the most recent and easily accessible examples of the current concern.
What I have shared so far is certainly alarming enough.
But now Toyota and Nissan are both openly warning their service departments that shortages are on the way...
Rising fuel prices are not the only petroleum-related problem facing drivers this summer. According to internal service bulletins reportedly tied to Toyota and Nissan, automakers are now preparing for potential shortages of certain motor oils as global supply chain pressure spreads beyond gasoline and diesel.
The issue primarily affects low-viscosity synthetic oils like 0W-8 and 0W-16, which are commonly used in newer hybrid and fuel-efficient engines. These lightweight oils have become increasingly important as automakers chase tighter emissions standards and better fuel economy numbers, especially in hybrid-heavy lineups like Toyota's.
Toyota is instructing their dealers to temporarily substitute heavier oil grades if necessary...
According to the leaked Toyota bulletin, the company warned service departments that 0W-8 and 0W-16 oils could become difficult to source due to production and logistics constraints affecting the petrochemical industry.
To manage inventories, Toyota reportedly instructed dealers to occasionally substitute heavier oil grades for certain service intervals. The guidance specifically notes that these substitutions are intended only as temporary measures rather than permanent changes to maintenance schedules.
And it is being reported that Nissan is warning their dealers to "expect oil allocations limited to roughly 55% of prior-year supply levels"...
Nissan's draft bulletin reportedly warned dealers to expect oil allocations limited to roughly 55% of prior-year supply levels. The company later confirmed the authenticity of the document, although it stated the memo itself had not yet been officially distributed across the dealer network.
The shortage concerns are not isolated to one automaker, either. Nissan's customer communication draft specifically stated the supply issue is affecting the entire automotive industry rather than only Nissan-branded service departments.
Clearly, there is widespread expectation that at least certain types of motor oil will be in short supply throughout the rest of this year.
So I would encourage you to stock up while you still can.
Meanwhile, the largest budget airline in Europe is bracing for an "Armageddon situation" due to a looming shortage of jet fuel...
Europe's biggest budget airline has warned weaker carriers could collapse under soaring jet fuel costs as the industry braces for what one executive described as a possible 'Armageddon situation'.
Ryanair finance chief Neil Sorahan said the airline has contingency plans in place as fears grow over fuel shortages and surging oil prices linked to instability in the Middle East and disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz.
'Do we have plans for some kind of Armageddon situation? Of course we do,' Sorahan told CNBC.
I don't think that this will be a major problem in the United States yet.
Asia and Europe will be the first to experience a serious lack of jet fuel.
But one thing we are already experiencing in the United States is much higher gasoline prices...
US gas prices have gone up, and up, and up since the country bombed Iran in late February. In March, I reported that the average price of gas in the country had gone up from $2.89/gallon to $3.48/gallon. Now, the average price of gas in the US is $4.517/gallon. That's a 56% increase in the price of gasoline since the US bombed Iran!
Read the last sentence of that quote again.
A 56 percent increase in just a matter of weeks is insane.
Sadly, things will only get worse if the fighting in the Middle East resumes.
Retired Army General Jack Keane has close ties to the Trump administration, and he just told Fox News that "we're on the cusp of going back into military operations"...
"Where are we? The president has exhibited a huge amount of patience here since the ceasefire on April the 8th. And we've tried to work a deal with these guys, and it just doesn't seem possible. And where we are, we're on the cusp of going back into military operations. When we stopped. Bill and Dana, we had two weeks to go, a little less than 30% of the targets. Those targets remain, but we have better intelligence now, after these five, six weeks. So that target list is expanded. It's considerably more comprehensive," he continued. "It'll be a combined operation with the United States and Israel going full throttle, all out, no half measures here whatsoever.
And when those target lists are complete and they will consist of the rest of the weapons that are remaining, to indicate some of what you just mentioned, to include what remains of nuclear, and also all the organizations that sustain the regime. We have better intelligence on locations and other things associated with that, and certainly they're going to be a comprehensive target list in of itself, and then a grouping of targets that really deal with all of Iran's revenue sources to force an economic collapse of the regime. Obviously, Kharg Island blockade is having significant impact. But this attack will even further aggravate their ability to gain revenue source. Without revenue, it's hard to see how this regime can survive. So we put it on a path."
I believe that General Keane is correct.
I believe that we are right on the brink of more fighting.
The bottom line is that the Strait of Hormuz is not going to be reopened any time soon and even with a deal - it will take weeks if not months to get caught up.
So there will be rationing and there will be shortages.
And the entire global economy is entering a major downturn.
We really are facing a nightmare scenario, and most of the general population still has no clue.
Originally published at The Economic Collapse Blog
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