China's War Clock Is Counting Down To 2027 - Will The US Defend Taiwan?

China has never been coy about its ambitions. For decades, Beijing has proclaimed that Taiwan is not a sovereign nation, but a "renegade province" destined to return to the mainland's control. That claim has often seemed rhetorical, meant more for domestic audiences than immediate military action. But recent developments suggest otherwise: China is not only talking about Taiwan, it is preparing--methodically, systematically, and aggressively--to seize it, possibly as early as 2027.

U.S. military leaders have repeatedly warned that by 2027 the People's Liberation Army (PLA) could be fully capable of invading Taiwan. Now, the evidence is mounting. From missile deployments and naval expansion to joint training with Russia and the development of cutting-edge weapons like satellite killers and drone swarms, China's moves over the past few months reveal a nation actively gearing for war.

For China, confrontation with Taiwan has become a laboratory of preparation. A concept known as nadi lianbing--"using the enemy to train the troops"--guides PLA behavior in the Taiwan Strait. That means every air incursion, every naval maneuver, every median-line crossing is not merely a provocation, but an exercise in real-time combat training.

Before then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi's 2022 visit to Taiwan, such median-line crossings were rare, almost symbolic. But in the years since, they've become routine. Heritage Foundation research shows that Chinese aircraft and naval operations have grown dramatically--sometimes spiking to dozens of incursions in a single day. In July 2025, PLA activity hit a record high, with 94 sorties and 67 crossings in a single two-day period. While August saw a dip, the overall trajectory remains upward. This is less about intimidation than it is about normalization--conditioning Taiwan and the international community to accept constant military pressure as the new normal.

Perhaps the most striking indicator of China's preparations is its naval expansion. The PLA Navy is now the largest in the world, boasting more ships than the U.S. Navy, with dozens of new destroyers, cruisers, and submarines launched in the last few years alone. Numbers are not everything--American ships remain more technologically advanced--but quantity matters when fighting in China's backyard. In a conflict over Taiwan, Beijing's advantage in proximity and volume could overwhelm defenders before outside help arrives.

This build-up is not occurring in isolation. Chinese vessels are increasingly active in the South China Sea and beyond. In August, a near-collision with a Philippine ship underscored the risks of China's aggressive maritime maneuvers. Meanwhile, Japan has had to scramble fighter jets against a rising tide of Chinese drones entering its air defense zones. These aren't accidents; they're deliberate stress tests of regional defenses.

Equally alarming is China's rapid missile and nuclear expansion. The Pentagon estimates China could have over 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035, triple its arsenal today. Its stockpile of conventional missiles, many designed to target U.S. bases in Guam and Japan, has also surged. A Taiwan invasion would not only rely on ships and planes, but on missile salvos meant to cripple defenses before a counterattack could mount.

Add to this Russia's involvement. In recent months, Moscow has trained airborne troops alongside Chinese forces, a chilling reminder that Beijing is studying the Ukraine conflict closely. Lessons learned from Russia's failures--logistics, drone warfare, satellite vulnerability--are being incorporated into China's own strategies.

The Russia-Ukraine war has become China's classroom. Ukraine's innovative use of drones, coupled with Russia's dependence on space-based communications, has convinced Beijing to double down on two areas: drone swarms and anti-satellite weapons. Reports suggest China is actively developing "satellite killers" capable of blinding U.S. surveillance and communication networks, while simultaneously investing in massive drone fleets designed to overwhelm defenses.

Imagine a Taiwan invasion beginning with a blizzard of drones, some armed, others gathering intelligence, paired with a cyberattack that knocks out command systems and space assets. This is no longer science fiction--it is precisely what China is building toward.

Why 2027? That year marks the centennial of the PLA's founding. Xi Jinping has tied the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" to military milestones, and 2027 is the year he has set for the PLA to be fully capable of retaking Taiwan. This does not guarantee an invasion, but it sets a strategic deadline Beijing appears determined to meet.

The timing also aligns with political calculations. By then, Xi may face growing economic troubles at home, with a slowing economy and restless population. A "rally-around-the-flag" war could consolidate his power, particularly if he believes Washington is distracted or divided.

China's military build-up is not posturing--it is preparation. While Beijing occasionally tempers activity to aid diplomatic goals, such as ongoing trade negotiations, the long-term trend is unmistakable: escalation. From Strait Thunder 2025A drills simulating blockades, to repeated incursions near Taiwan's islands, the PLA is rehearsing for the real thing.

The question is not whether China intends to take Taiwan--it does--but whether deterrence will hold. That depends on how seriously the U.S. and its allies take the threat.

The next two years are critical. Every drill, every missile test, every drone swarm rehearsal brings Beijing closer to the day it believes it can strike with confidence. Unless Washington and its allies respond with equal urgency--fortifying Taiwan, enhancing regional defenses, and making the costs of aggression clear--2027 could be remembered not as a warning, but as the year the countdown ended.

China is telling the world exactly what it plans to do. The only question left is: will we believe them in time?